The Winds of War, Fears of strike from bases in Kenya, Mogadishu tense

SW News

[SW News] ( ION, Times of India, the Independent ) The Winds of War, Fears of strike from bases in Kenya, Mogadishu tense.. : Posted on [18 Dec 2001]

15/12/01 SOMALIA

The Winds of War

With its European allies, the American government is preparing to deploy a sanitary cord around Somalia before considering antiterrorist operations in that Horn of Africa country. In addition to the German navy ships in the Detroit of Bab el Mandeb (ION 975) and the American vessels off Mogadshu, the deployment takes into account the participation of the British and French navies. The purpose of the encircling is to prevent fundamentalist terrorist groups from finding haven in Somalia to rebuild their networks. But the operations are not limited to the sole military aspects. In fact, everything started with the economic quarantine of the country, including prohibition of the fund transfers operated by Al Barakat (ION 971) and the suppression of a telephone and internet company, and will continue with investigations on the terrorists' financial networks in the entire region. In that outlook, America's assistant secretary for Africa, Walter Kansteiner, visited Kenya and Ethiopia, before heading to Zimbabwe and South Africa this week. The information war is not excluded from the overall strategy since this week an American mission in Djibouti negotiated the installation of a transmitter to broadcast Voice of America programs to the Middle East.

Washington is also encouraging its local allies to take anti-terrorist initiatives, which at times have occurred with too much hurry. Informed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) that a young terrorist with ties to Osama bin Laden's Al Qaida had been located in Mandera, in the north-east of Kenya near the Somalia border, the Kenyan government proceeded to arrest a man, who turned out to be an old imam of 62 with a similar name. That led to a riot in Mandera this week, which in turn led to the imam's liberation. As for Ethiopia, it has long given the U.S. state department carte blanche with regards to everything which concerns Somalia, including its armed incursions against the fundamentalists of Al Ittihad. However sources close to the Addis Ababa régime indicated recently that his government would not allow itself to be led into doing America's demining work in Somalia, if that did not correspond to a specific political objective of Ethiopia's.

Still, several members of the United States government have already fingered Somalia as their next battle against terrorism. Which is why, accompanied by two Ethiopian officers last weekend, some American soldiers paid a visit to Baidoa, the Somalian home of the Rahaweyn Resistance Army (RRA), to obtain information regarding eventual concentrations of Al Ittihad in the zone. The American objective is to find a target for an exemplary American knockout operation against Somali or foreign fundamentalists linked to Al Qaida. An audacious target would be the Islamic bastion of Mogadishu, home to the Al Huriaya mosque attended by Al Ittihad partisans and sandwiched between the neighborhoods of Yaaqshiid and Karan. On the downside, that would run the risk of violent reactions from the the vast group of armed Habr Gedir factions in that part of town.

Before undertaking any sort of action, the United States will have to find support in Somalia itself, outside of factions who have made devil's agreements with the Islamists, as have a number of member of the Transitional National Governement (TNG). And the United Nations will probably be following in their footsteps. Thus, the man in charge of the United Nations security since 1994 – and a former Delta Force operative, no less – flew to Mogadishu this week in an unorthodox way. Wayne Long landed at the Daynile airport controlled by Mohamed Qanyere Afrah, a TNG fishing minister who has had his bouts with controversy but who has always been hostile to the fundamentalists. Long used neither Iseley, managed by Bashir Ragge, a Harti Abgal like many TNG supporters, nor K-50, the property of Ahmed Duaeh Haf, a Saad/Habr Gedir parliamentarian. As he was leaving, Long is said to have advised Qanyere to enlarge his airport.

THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER N° 976

CAMPAIGN AGAINST TERRORISM: Fears of strike on Somalia from bases in Kenya
The Independent - United Kingdom; Dec 18, 2001
BY ALEX DUVAL SMITH AFRICA CORRESPONDENT

THERE ARE strong indications that the United States is preparing to launch air attacks on Somalia from bases in neighbouring Kenya, despite convincing evidence that al-Qa'ida groups of any significance are unlikely to be operating in the country.

Although the threat of attacks may yet prove to be a bout of energetic sabre-rattling by America, it is causing considerable unease in Kenya and enormous fear in Somalia.

Yesterday, the BBC World Service began broadcasting two extra daily 15-minute programmes on FM in Somalia, a move it denied had been prompted by the Foreign Office and which it said was in response to growing paranoia and a lack of reliable information in the country.

Barry Langridge, the head of the World Service's Africa and Middle East section, said: "People are extremely nervous. Banking systems and phone companies in Somalia have been hit by the American clampdown on groups allegedly linked to al-Qa'ida and people feel very isolated."

He said people in Somalia felt the US had a "score to settle" after the deaths of 18 of its soldiers during a botched US intervention in 1993. "We have blanket listening in Somalia, but since the closure of banking institutions and the internet, people cannot get information and feel nervous.

"The expanded service is our decision. We do not have to ask the Foreign Office. We have not done this so as to get Mr Blair or Mr Bush on the air."

Kenyans, who were not compensated for the 1998 al-Qa'ida-linked bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi, are reluctant to invite possible further instability in their country, which has a large Somali community. They see any deal between the US, Britain and Kenya's President, Daniel Arap Moi, merely as a way for the 77-year-old leader to bargain for a resumption of foreign aid in the run-up to elections next year.

In Nairobi, the opposition leader Mwai Kibaki said he feared Mr Moi had once again overridden the country's parliament by promising his support for the second wave of the campaign against terrorism at meetings earlier this month with the Secretary of State for Defence, Geoff Hoon, and the US assistant secretary of state for Africa, Walter Kansteiner.

Many observers believe Mr Moi has offered Kenya as a "launch pad" for air attacks on Somalia. Others say the US, which according to some reports already has a small number of special forces in Somalia, is more likely to bomb the country from warplanes based on aircraft carriers in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, and support an Ethiopian land invasion.

Mr Kibaki said: "This is too serious a matter for Kenya's government to act on by itself and they [the US and Britain] should not treat us as a colony. Parliament must know the scale of risk to our security before we can justify surrendering any control of our territory."

Few experts on the Horn of Africa region can see any good reason why Somalia, which has no national government and is largely run by rival warlords, could be perceived as a viable haven for terrorists.

America's informants on the "terrorist" activities of al- Itihaad, a Saudi-funded group that unsuccessfully tried to unite the country under an Islamic banner in the 1980s and 1990s, is a Somali faction, the Rahanwein Resistance Army.

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<Fresh Reports of Bases for Terror War
The Nation (Kenya); Dec 18, 2001
BY PAUL REDFERN

Nairobi is said to have given its consent for US and British special forces to use Kenya as a base for any military action in neighbouring Somalia, according to a report in the Times newspaper.

The story was carried under the heading "Kenya base agreed for next stage of terror war".

The deal was agreed at talks last week in Nairobi between British Defence minister Geoff Hoon and President Moi, the paper said.

The report also said that President Moi was "exacting a high price for his cooperation. The deal is expected to open the way for the easing of aid to Nairobi."

Britain's Ministry of Defence in London was slightly more forthcoming on details relating to the meeting than it was last week when it merely confirmed that the meeting had taken place but would not give details on the discussions involved.

A spokesman told the Nation that the discussions were "wide-ranging" and that they involved "matters of mutual concern".

Asked about the issue of military bases, the spokesman would only say that the issue of military bases "was not necessarily the purpose of the visit," and that he was "not sure that the Times report was accurate".

Last week the British High Commission denied that any military action in Somalia or Sudan was discussed between Mr Hoon and President Moi. Critics however doubted the claim and questioned why the British Defence minister should be sent by London to Nairobi if the matters discussed were purely of a foreign affairs nature.

The same week, the Daily Telegraph newspaper reported that Mr Hoon had assured President Moi that any intervention in Somalia would be likely to be restricted to special forces operations rather than heavy bombing of the type seen in Afghanistan.

The Daily Telegraph added that the United States had asked Britain's Foreign Office to use its influence to try and persuade Nairobi to allow the basing of US and possibly British special SAS forces inside Kenya.

"One of Britain's most important roles is to use its enormous diplomatic and economic influence in parts of the world where it once had an empire," a senior staff member of US General Tommy Franks told Britain's largest selling broadsheet newspaper.

The report added that "it seems probable that Kenya would be needed as a land base for commando units going after al-Qaeda members.

"Intensive studies of Somalia have shown the Pentagon that a broad military campaign as used in Afghanistan would not be necessary to destroy Osama bin Laden's limited network there," the Daily Telegraph said.

The US is said to be reluctant to use Somalia's other neighbour, Ethiopia, as a base for attacks because of fears that this would lead to further destabilisation of a volatile region.

But American intelligence experts are said to be convinced that al-Qaeda camps in Somalia are still active.

"America is relying on Britain to persuade Kenya to allow special forces to use bases there."

The Kenyan government is said to have indicated its concern that any large scale-attack could drive hundreds of thousands of refugees Kenya's northern border to an area which is already suffering severe security problems.

The Daily Telegraph said that American troops and CIA agents have already been inside Somalia conducting reconnaissance missions and have concluded that al-Qaeda has a presence there which "is relatively small and unsophisticated".

But US intelligence experts are said to be convinced that al-Qaeda camps in Somalia are still active.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2001
Mogadishu tense amid speculation over US strike
THE TIMES OF INDIA

MOGADISHU: Amid speculation that the United States might turn its military sight on suspected terrorists in Somalia, residents of the bullet-scarred capital, Mogadishu, are growing uneasy.

Several senior US officials have openly expressed concern about certain individuals and groups in Somalia, which has had no effective central government for a decade.

One group has been singled out for attention: al-Itihaad al-Islamya (Islamic Unity), a fundamentalist organisation that has been known in the past to use arms in its struggle to set up an Islamic state.

Asha Dirye, a textile dealer in Bakara market, the city's largest, said she had taken to commuting with her goods instead of leaving them in her stall, for fear they would be destroyed in the event of an airstrike.

"If America is planning to attack Somalia, they will only hit the poor wome n and children who can't escape their attacks," she said.

"Before the threat, I used to leave my stock at a private store at night. But I currently take it to my house in the far Huriwa district because the Americans might burn it," she said.

Dirye charged that any attack by the United States would be driven by animosity and bad memories.

"They hate the Somalis too much for the killing of their servicemen in Somalia in October 1993," she said, referring to a botched bid to arrest the late Somali warlord Mohammed Farah Aidid together with his lieutenants.

Eighteen US special forces died in a battle that also claimed hundreds of Somali lives.

Aidid's faction had been accused of killing 24 Pakistani UN peacekeepers in an ambush earlier that year.

Fatuma Liban, a nurse, told AFP that an attack would only result in further killings. "This would be a grave mistake," she said.

Having talked with what he called "friends who can read English newspapers," 60-year-old Ab di Shiek Abrahim, another market trader, said over a cup of tea at a makeshift cafe that he feared an attack was imminent.

"We better wait and see what the American firepower is all about, before we trade again," he said.

North Mogadishu religious scholar Shiekh Abdulkadir Mohamed Sommow, the founder in 1994 of north Mogadishu Islamic courts and a longtime critic of al-Itihaad, also warned against attacks.

"I hate al-Itihaad, but I see them more as home-grown religious extremists who wanted to seize power in Somalia by force and by ecumenical methods. But they are not a force that threatens any outside world," he said.

"The Americans came to Somalia and lost some and killed some, that is the nature of war, but it is foolish to collectively punish the Somalis by air bombardment," said Ahmed Ali, a militiaman who fought against the US soldiers in the early 1990s.

A Somali lawyer based in Mogadishu, Omar Mohamed "Dhagay", said a US attack would not have any legality under inte rnational law.

"If the US is to head a foreign military contingent under the United Nations auspices to bring peace to Somalia" as was the case in the 1990s "then they are most welcome. If the case is attacks on the so-called terrorist targets, then America is really misguided."

A Koranic teacher in north Mogadishu, Ahmed Moalin Mohamud, welcomed any US-led military intervention to disarm the warring factions and freelance gunmen who have held sway for the last 10 years.

"The warlords and their protagonists are terrorists that kill, rape, displace, loot and torture people. These are real terrorists who are also the enemies of Allah. If America wanted to fight those criminals, they can have our support and blessing of Islam," Mohamud said.